LCID stock - Lucid Stock Alert: Why LCID Looks Ready to Crash

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Plenty of traders are still willing to risk their hard-earned capital on electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID). I wish I could offer them some comfort and a positive outlook. However, LCID stock investors need to prepare for a crash landing. Lucid Group’s recently released results only add to the bearish thesis, unfortunately.

Lucid Group’s shareholders have had to deal with some good news but a lot more bad news lately. In the “good news” category, the Lucid Air was selected as the 2023 World Luxury Car of the Year during the 2023 New York International Auto Show. On the other hand, Lucid Group issued a recall on the company’s Lucid Air sedans due to power-loss risks.

There’s other good and bad news to consider with Lucid Group, and we’ll round up the relevant facts and circumstances now. Just don’t expect a favorable outcome, as the demand for Lucid Group’s EVs appears to be far from ideal.

Lucid Group’s ‘Dream Ahead Tour’ May Just Be a Pipe Dream

Returning to the “good news” category, Lucid Group just kicked off its 2023 “Dream Ahead Tour.” The automaker plans to “visit more than 40 cities over the next seven months,” offering opportunities to “experience and get to drive a Lucid Air.”

That’s all fine and well, but LCID stock investors shouldn’t celebrate yet. It remains to be seen whether all of the test-drives and marketing efforts actually result in EV sales for Lucid Group. The company’s vehicles are pricey, and inflation is still a problem for many Americans. Also, it will surely cost money to implement the “Dream Ahead Tour.”

This might not be a good time for Lucid Group to spend money on a huge tour. Bear in mind, Lucid Group is supposed to be engaged in a “restructuring plan” right now. The company is slashing its workforce by around 18%, which is a major cut. So, while Lucid can tout its test-drive tour, the company’s headcount reduction indicates that there are problems under the hood.

EV Deliveries-to-Production Ratio Doesn’t Bode Well for LCID Stock

Besides the staff cutting, Lucid Group’s recently released operational update provides further evidence that LCID stock is ready to crash. The press release provided the basic data points without any commentary from company’s management. That’s a bad sign, as positive results are typically accompanied by some well-deserved bragging.

So, here’s the lowdown. Lucid Group produced 2,314 Air sedans (the company’s flagship vehicle model) during this year’s first quarter. That’s a fairly low number, considering Lucid previously expressed plans to build 10,000 to 14,000 vehicles in 2023.

It gets even worse from there. Lucid Group delivered 1,406 Air sedans in Q1, falling short of Wall Street’s expectation of around 2,000. Now, let’s do some basic math: 1,406 delivered vehicles divided by 2,314 produced vehicles implies a deliveries-to-production ratio of roughly 61%.

Meanwhile, a report from Seeking Alpha pegs the deliveries-to-production ratio at 96% for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and 85% for Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN). The point is that, comparatively speaking, the demand for Lucid Group’s vehicles isn’t stellar.

How Low Could LCID Stock Go?

Rather than get caught up in the excitement of a new marketing tour, I would encourage prospective Lucid Group investors to look at the cold, hard facts. Lucid Group has been consistently unprofitable and isn’t selling many vehicles.

Frankly, it will be quite difficult for Lucid Group to sell its expensive EVs and compete with Tesla in 2023. Therefore, financial traders should prepare for LCID stock to crash below $5 in the coming months. If you’re already invested, consider bailing before the situation goes from bad to worse. And if you’re planning to hit the “buy” button, think twice as you don’t want to make a potentially costly mistake.

On the date of publication, David Moadel did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the Publishing Guidelines.

David Moadel has provided compelling content – and crossed the occasional line – on behalf of Motley Fool, Crush the Street, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, TipRanks, Benzinga, and (of course) He also serves as the chief analyst and market researcher for Portfolio Wealth Global and hosts the popular financial YouTube channel Looking at the Markets.

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