Why You Should Avoid Overvalued and Overhyped CRM Stock (for Now)

CRM stock - Why You Should Avoid Overvalued and Overhyped CRM Stock (For Now)

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It may be tempting to invest in customer relationship management (CRM) software specialist Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) right now. Yet, caution is advised, as CRM stock isn’t a bargain at all. It will be difficult for Salesforce to live up to the company’s expectations, especially now that Salesforce is aggressively slimming down.

At first glance, it seems like Salesforce is infallible and unstoppable. The company is among the newest additions to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Also, Salesforce is embedding generative artificial intelligence (AI) into the company’s cloud products (though some people might argue that Salesforce is a latecomer and bandwagon-jumper in this regard).

Yet, any stock can be vulnerable to pullbacks, especially after a huge run-up. Before investing in Salesforce, consider the risk-versus-reward profile, as a substantially smaller company might not be able to live up to its own high expectations.

Salesforce’s Chief Executive Acknowledges a Mistake

If anything has shifted the hype surrounding Salesforce into overdrive, it’s the company’s revenue guidance for fiscal 2024. Salesforce expects to generate $34.5 billion to $34.7 billion, up approximately 10% year over year and higher than Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $34 billion.

CRM stock jumped from $165 to nearly $190 after the earnings and guidance release. Now, Salesforce has the daunting task of justifying the hype and meeting its own revenue expectations. That’s going to be challenging during a time when some businesses are cutting costs due to elevated inflation and recession fears.

Salesforce is also cutting its costs. CEO Marc Benioff admitted that Salesforce “hired too many people” after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic when technology companies were making money hand over fist.

Alarmingly, Salesforce’s workforce increased 62% during that hype-fueled time. Now, in 2023, the company is laying off 10% of its staff. It certainly won’t be easy for a significantly smaller Salesforce to live up to its pumped-up revenue expectations.

Several Metrics Indicate CRM Stock Isn’t a Good Value

Another concern is the valuation of CRM stock. The aforementioned post-earnings share-price rally made the stock even more expensive than it already was.

We can drive the point home by applying some old-school but still-relevant valuation metrics. For example, Salesforce’s trailing 12-month (TTM) GAAP price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 906.44x is absolutely outrageous. Bear in mind the median P/E ratio for the sector is 21.95x.

Meanwhile, Salesforce’s TTM price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 6.01x is more than double the sector median P/S ratio of 2.68x. In addition, Salesforce’s TTM price-to-cash-flow (P/CF) ratio is 26.73x, versus the sector median P/CF ratio of 19.79x.

It’s Wise to Avoid CRM Stock Now

Given the company’s sky-high P/E ratio, it’s sensible to wait for the Salesforce share price to move closer to its 52-week low of $126.34 before taking a position. Otherwise, you might end up on the wrong side of the trade.

Besides, Salesforce has to knock it out of the park with stellar revenue stats over the coming year. This will be difficult to achieve with a reduced staff. So, now isn’t the right time to buy CRM stock, as lower prices are likely on the horizon.

On the date of publication, David Moadel did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

David Moadel has provided compelling content – and crossed the occasional line – on behalf of Motley Fool, Crush the Street, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, TipRanks, Benzinga, and (of course) InvestorPlace.com. He also serves as the chief analyst and market researcher for Portfolio Wealth Global and hosts the popular financial YouTube channel Looking at the Markets.

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7 Stocks That Will Bring Success to the Dividend Investor

With the market likely to encounter myriad variables this year, investors should really consider dividend stocks to buy. Fundamentally, companies that provide passive income to their stakeholders tend to weather down cycles better than their growth-centric counterparts. Mainly, this is because dividends come from profits – and profitable enterprises tend to enjoy well-established businesses.

Another factor that will benefit dividend stocks to buy centers on economic realities. Recently, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress, opening the door for more and quicker-paced rate hikes. Naturally, the rise in borrowing costs will impose headwinds on growth enterprises. And while dividend payers will suffer too, they should be able to ride the storm better. Finally, to ramp up the probabilities of success, all of the market ideas below enjoy analyst price targets that imply double-digit gains. Therefore, these dividend stocks to buy play both sides of the profitability aisle.

RBA Ritchie Bros Auctioneers $60.09
DOX Amdocs $91.10
DE Deere $424.29
PSA Public Storage $300.87
CSCO Cisco $49.11
GRMN Garmin $98.13
KELYA Kelly Services $16.98

Dividend Stocks to Buy: Ritchie Bros Auctioneers (RBA)

A photo of a paper with a chart and the word

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A global asset management and disposition company, Ritchie Bros Auctioneers (NYSE:RBA) offers customers end-to-end solutions for buying and selling used heavy equipment, trucks, and other assets in numerous industries. On the surface, the troubled global economy might seem to imply a poor performance for RBA. However, the stock gained nearly 7% of equity value in the trailing year.

Interestingly, RBA offers an enticing financial profile. Operationally, its three-year revenue growth rate of 10% and a net margin of 18.17% rank within the top 30% of the underlying sector. Also, the company’s price-earnings-growth (PEG) ratio sits at 0.95 times. In contrast, the industry median pings at 1.56 times. In terms of passive income, Ritchie isn’t the most generous with a forward yield of 1.8%. However, its payout ratio sits at 38.93%, presenting confidence for sustainability.

Finally, Wall Street analysts peg RBA as a consensus moderate buy. Further, their average price target stands at $66.60, implying nearly 11% upside potential. Thus, it’s one of the dividend stocks to buy.

Dividend Stocks to Buy: Amdocs (DOX)

A photo of a young boy wearing sunglasses, jeans, a blazer, a white shirt and suspenders holding money in various denominations in one hand and sitting in a plush chair.

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A multinational corporation, Amdocs (NASDAQ:DOX) specializes in software and services for communications, media, and financial services providers and digital enterprises. So far this year, DOX encountered some choppy waters, dipping down almost 2%. However, in the past 365 days, DOX returned shareholders nearly 15% of equity value.

As with Ritchie, Amdocs presents some attractive fiscal attributes. Perhaps most notably, DOX enjoys an objectively undervalued profile. Presently, the market prices DOX at a trailing multiple of 20.3. As a discount to earnings, Amdocs ranks better than 61.4% of the competition. In addition, shares trade at a forward multiple of 16. In contrast, the sector median value stands at 24.39. Presently, Amdocs carries a forward yield of 1.93%. Its payout ratio sits below 27%, facilitating confidence regarding yield sustainability.

Turning to Wall Street, analysts peg DOX as a consensus moderate buy. Their average price target pings at $99.75, implying almost 11% upside potential. This too attracts as one of the dividend stocks to buy.

Dividend Stocks to Buy: Deere (DE)

A hand reaches out of a mailbox holding a wad of cash.

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A manufacturer of agricultural machinery and heavy equipment, Deere (NYSE:DE) represents a critical tangential component of national infrastructure. Further, with greater emphasis on core needs such as farming, DE ranks among the most relevant dividend stocks to buy. It’s also a strong performer in the charts. In the past 365 days, DE returned stakeholders almost 15% of equity value.

Overall, this fairly valued enterprise should appeal both for its burgeoning narrative and its operational dominance. For example, its three-year revenue growth rate stands at 11.7%, outpacing 77.35% of its peers. Also, its book growth rate during the same period pings at 23%, above nearly 90% of the industry.

To be fair, the less-than-appealing side for Deere is its passive income. With a forward yield of 1.2%, it’s not the most generous company. However, its payout ratio is only 15.63%, so it can deliver on this passive income convincingly. But don’t go away yet. Analysts peg DE as a consensus moderate buy. As well, their average price target is $472.33, implying 13% upside potential.

Public Storage (PSA)

The word

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A self-explanatory business, Public Storage (NYSE:PSA) owns self-storage facilities throughout the U.S. The company structures itself as a real estate investment trust (REIT). Fundamentally, Public Storage addresses the needs of baby boomers looking to downsize but keep certain items. As well, it offers solutions for millennials also looking to downsize to save on escalated residential rents.

To be sure, PSA rates as a more volatile investment among dividend stocks to buy, shedding nearly 18% of value in the trailing year. However, it also might make for an undervalued opportunity. According to Gurufocus.com’s discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, PSA’s fair value comes out to $488.50. However, the stock’s time-of-writing price sits at $302.35. At the moment, Public Storage carries a forward yield of 3.97%. While more generous than many other companies, its payout ratio is 96.4%. Therefore, caution is warranted. Still, covering analysts peg PSA as a consensus moderate buy. Moreover, their average price target stands at $348, implying 15% upside potential.

Cisco (CSCO)

Glass jar of coins marked

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A multinational digital communications technology firm, Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) develops, manufactures, and sells networking hardware, software, telecommunications equipment, and other high-technology services and products. It’s a powerhouse in specialized tech markets such as the Internet of Things. However, it does rank as one of the higher-risk, higher-reward dividend stocks to buy.

In the trailing year, CSCO dropped 10% in equity value. Still, this underperformance probably represents a buy-the-dip opportunity. In the trailing five years, shares gained nearly 8%. Looking at the financials, Cisco benefits from outstanding profit margins. As well, CSCO trades at a forward multiple of 13. As a discount to earnings, Cisco ranks better than 61.63% of the competition. In terms of passive income, Cisco offers a forward yield of 3.19%. Further, its payout ratio is only 38.69%, affording credibility and confidence. Looking to Wall Street, covering analysts peg CSCO as a consensus moderate buy. Moreover, their average price target stands at $56.88, implying over 16% upside potential.

Garmin (GRMN)

7 Winning High-Yield Dividend Stocks With Payouts Over 5%

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A multinational tech firm, Garmin (NYSE:GRMN) specializes in GPS technology for automotive, aviation, marine, outdoor, and sports activities. Furthermore, the company invested heavily in wearable technologies such as activity trackers and smartwatches. Since the Jan. opener, GRMN posted a decent performance, gaining 5% of equity value. However, in the past 365 days, it’s down almost 11%.

According to Gurufocus.com’s proprietary calculations for fair market value (FMV), Garmin represents a modestly undervalued investment. For me, the operational strengths distinguish themselves. As an example, its three-year book growth rate stands at 8.8%, outpacing 63.45% of the field. Also, the company’s net margin is 20%, above 92.38% of sector peers.

Right now, the company carries a forward yield of 2.97%. Its payout ratio of 51.48% is a bit elevated but still a decent sustainable figure. Lastly, covering analysts peg GRMN as a consensus moderate buy. As well, their average price target stands at $119, implying 21% upside potential. Therefore, it’s an enticing candidate for dividend stocks to buy.

Kelly Services (KELYA)

7 Winning High-Yield Dividend Stocks With Payouts Over 5%

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An American office staffing company, Kelly Services (NASDAQ:KELYA) also operates globally. Fundamentally, with mass layoffs accelerating, Kelly Services offers natural relevancies. As well, the company doesn’t just focus on white-collar work but also warehouse opportunities. You never know – office worker bees might get tired of sitting in front of a computer all day.

To be fair, though, prospective investors will need patience with KELYA. In the past 365 days, shares dropped over 12% in equity value. However, it’s also objectively undervalued. Presently, KELYA trades at a forward multiple of 10.93. As a discount to earnings, Kelly Services ranks better than 70.19% of its rivals. Also, the market prices KELYA at 0.13 times trailing sales. In contrast, the sector median value is 1.18 times. Currently, Kelly carries a forward yield of 1.78%. Though a bit low, its payout ratio sits at 16.85%, giving stakeholders plenty of confidence.

Finally, the big reason to consider KELYA as one of the dividend stocks to buy. Analysts anticipate shares hitting $24, implying upside potential of over 42%.

On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare.

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Google AI researcher resigns after learning Bard uses data from ChatGPT: report

An AI researcher at Alphabet Inc.’s
GOOGL,
+1.46%

GOOG,
+1.41%

Google resigned because he discovered data from its Bard chatbot came from OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which powers Microsoft Corp.’s
MSFT,
+0.90%

Bing Chat search features. According to a report in The Information, researcher Jacob Devlin has since joined OpenAI after discovering Google relied “heavily” on data from ShareGPT, a website that parses conversations made with OpenAI’s chat models. Google was not immediately available for comment.

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Virgin Galactic stock gains, even as Virgin Orbit shares plunge after cutting most of its staff

Investors in Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc.
SPCE,
+2.71%

could take a breath Friday, as shares in the aerospace and space travel company appeared unaffected by the troubles facing rocket-launcher builder Virgin Orbit Holdings Inc.
VORB,
-33.90%

Sir Richard Branson is the largest shareholder for both companies, according to FactSet data, and is also chairman of Virgin Atlantic Airways. Virgin Galactic’s stock gained 0.7% in morning trading, and has rallied 17.5% year to date. Meanwhile, Virgin Orbit shares plunged 38.7% toward a record-low close, and has plummeted 88.7% this year, after the company said it would lay off 675 employees, or about 85% of its workforce, given the company’s “inability to secure meaningful funding.” Meanwhile, the S&P 500
SPX,
+0.97%

gained 0.7% on Friday, and has tacked on 6.3% year to date.

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Amarin stock falls after CEO Mikhail resigns, company disputes CEO asserting of entitlement to severance

Shares of Amarin Corp.
AMRN,
-2.92%

rose dropped 5.5% toward a near three-month low in premarket trading Friday, after the biopharmaceutical company focused on therapies for cardiovascular health disclosed that Chief Executive Karim Mikhail has resigned, effective immediately, after about 19 months in the role. “Mr. Mikhail has asserted that he is entitled to severance payments as the result of his resignation, which the company disagrees with and intends to dispute,” Amarin said in a statement. The company said it was looking for a permanent replacement of Mikhail. The stock has plunged 73.3% since the end of August 2021, the month Mikail became CEO, while the iShares Biotechnology exchange-traded fund
IBB,
+1.21%

has tumbled 25.4% and the S&P 500
SPX,
+0.82%

has give up 10.0%.

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Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: BBBY, NKLA,VORB

An exterior view of a Bed Bath & Beyond store on February 7, 2023 in Clifton, New Jersey. 

Kena Betancur | Corbis News | Getty Images

Check out the companies making headlines before the bell.

Bed Bath & Beyond – Bed Bath & Beyond shares dipped 2% before the bell, building on a more than 26% loss from Thursday’s session. The declines came after the company once again warned that it may need to file for bankruptcy protection if its proposed $300 million stock offering fails.

Nikola – The electric truck maker fell 5% after it announced plans to raise $100 million through a secondary stock offering, or a private sale of stock if needed.

Virgin Orbit — Virgin Orbit shed nearly 43% after announcing that it would halt operations “for the foreseeable future” as it fails to secure funding. Virgin Orbit also said it will eliminate about 90% of its workforce.

Digital World Acquisition — The SPAC linked to former President Donald Trump surged as much as 19% in premarket trading on Friday. The lift comes after a New York grand jury formally indicted Trump on charges related to “hush money” payments made before his 2016 campaign for president.

BlackBerry — Shares fell about 2% after the software company posted fourth-quarter revenue that fell slightly short of consensus estimates. The company’s top line came in at $151 million, while analysts polled by StreetAccount had forecast revenue of $154 million.

Generac Holdings — The power systems provider fell 3.7% following a downgrade to underperform from neutral by Bank of America. The firm said Generac’s guidance for the 2023 fiscal year seems out of reach with its residential segment pressured.

Regional bank stocks — Some regional bank stocks that have been volatile in recent weeks rose Friday. Shares of First Republic gained 1.7%, while Zions Bancorporation, PacWest and KeyCorp added about 0.6% each. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF inched 0.4% higher. UBS noted that bank borrowings from the Fed declined last week, a sign that liquidity issues may be under control following a difficult month for the broader sector.

— CNBC’s Alex Harring and Brian Evans contributed reporting

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Fed’s Collins welcomes ‘bit lower’ PCE inflation but says overall ‘not a lot of progress’

There is some positive news in the February personal consumption expenditure price index report, but inflation remains too high, said Boston Fed President Susan Collins on Friday. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Collins noted that the “bit lower” data in February needed to be viewed along with highly elevated readings in the prior two months. The end result is the 3-month average for PCE inflation is about what the 12-month average is. “That is not a lot of progress,” Collins said. She added that the Fed has more work to do, and more to see, to know that inflation is really on a sustained downward path.” She said she hasn’t decide what she thinks the Fed should do at its next meeting. In a speech yesterday, Collins said her views were similar to the median forecast of Fed officials for one more rate hike this year and then no rate cuts until 2024.

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7 Growth Stocks for a Down Market

Finding the right growth stocks for a down market can be tricky.

The last 12 months have been challenging for equity markets. During this period, the S&P 500 index has declined by 13%. The impact on growth stocks has been severe with several high-flying names having plunged by more than 50%. There are growth stocks for a down market that have defied the broad-based correction.

Of course, there is an opportunity in growth stocks that have witnessed a deep correction. Stocks that have been resilient show robust fundamentals and attractive valuations. If growth stocks remained sideways or trended higher in a correction, the rally can be massive during a bull market.

It’s therefore a good time to screen and buy growth stocks for a down market. Particularly, companies that have the catalyst positive industry tailwinds in the coming years.

Let’s discuss seven growth stocks for a down market.

ALB Albemarle Corporation $223.10
PINS Pinterest $26.54
RIG Transocean $6.44
LI Li Auto $25.36
DOX Amdocs $94.90
BORR Borr Drilling $7.72
HL Hecla Mining $6.34

Albemarle Corporation (ALB)

Albemarle Corporation (NYSE:ALB) stock has remained sideways over a 12-month period and outperformed the S&P 500 index. At a forward price-earnings ratio of 7.3, the stock seems poised for a big rally once market sentiments improve.

Albemarle has been on a high growth trajectory as the company boosts its lithium conversion capacity. Last year, the company reported revenue growth of 193%. For 2023, Albemarle has guided for growth in the range of 55% to 75%.

I expect the momentum to sustain beyond 2023 considering the following fact. Albemarle reported lithium conversion capacity of 200ktpa at the end of last year. The company expects to increase capacity to 500ktpa to 600ktpa by 2027.

Cash reserves can finance growth if there are strong cash flows. The company’s credit metrics will remain strong and ALB stock has visibility for sustained dividend growth. If lithium prices continue to rise, cash inflows could be larger than predicted.

Pinterest (PINS)

Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) stock had witnessed a plunge from highs of February 2021. However, PINS stock has remained sideways in the last 12 months. This indicates the point that the worst is over in terms of downside.

My view is backed because business metrics are improving on a year-on-year basis. For Q4 2022, the company reported 4% growth in revenue and a similar growth in monthly active users. An important point to note is that it’s the fourth consecutive quarter of an increase in average revenue per user in U.S. and Canada. The same holds true for global ARPU.

However, the ARPU gap between U.S. and Europe is significant. The ARPU for the rest of the world was just 14 cents for Q4 2022. If the ARPU gap closes, there is significant scope for EBITDA margin expansion and cash flow upside.

This seems likely with Pinterest focused on making the platform shoppable. As advertising revenue increases, global ARPU is likely to remain in an uptrend.

Transocean (RIG)

Transocean (NYSE:RIG) stock is another name that has outperformed with an upside of 40% in 12 months. The offshore drilling rig service provider stock has remained resilient even with the recent correction in oil.

A big catalyst for Transocean in the last few quarters has been order intake. The company’s backlog has swelled to $8.5 billion as of February. Just to put things into perspective, the backlog addition in the first half of 2022 was $606 million. During the second half of the year, the backlog addition increased to $3.3 billion.

There are two positives related to the backlog. First, it provides clear revenue visibility for the next 12 to 24 months. New orders are at a higher day rate and EBITDA margin expansion seems likely through 2023.

Transocean is also targeting debt reduction of $3 billion through 2025. Given the backlog, this seems realistic. As credit metrics improve, RIG stock is likely to trend higher.

Li Auto (LI)

Over a 12-month period, Nio (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV) stock have declined by 55% and 60% respectively. During the same period, Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) has declined by just 6%. The Chinese EV stock has outperformed peers and the broader market.

There are several fundamental reasons to be bullish on Li Auto. First, the company is on an aggressive expansion stage in terms of new model launches. In the first half of 2022, the company has one model, Li ONE. However, Li Auto currently has a pipeline of models that include Li ONE, Li L9, L8, and Li L7.

With the launch of multiple models, deliveries growth is likely to remain robust. The company has also been aggressively expanding its retail net work within China. It’s also worth noting that Li Auto ended 2022 with cash and equivalents of $8.47 billion. The company, therefore, has ample financial flexibility to invest in product development and retail expansion.

Amdocs (DOX)

Amdocs (NASDAQ:DOX) is another attractive growth stock for a down market. DOX stock has trended higher by 13% in the last 12 months. At a forward P/E of 16, the stock remains attractive and looks poised for further upside. The stock also offers an attractive dividend yield of 1.83%.

As an overview, Amdocs is a provider of software and services to the communication and media industry. Last year, the company reported revenue of $4.58 billion with 75% recurring revenue. As of Q1 2022, the company had a record 12-month backlog of $4.1 billion.

This provides clear cash flow visibility and the business model is attractive from that perspective. For 2022, free cash flows were $600 million and Amdocs expects FCF in excess of $700 million for the current year.

An important point to note is that Amdocs has been pursuing global diversification. Last year, the 60% of the top 10 customers were from outside North America. With 5G rollout acceleration, the global growth outlook is positive for the company.

Borr Drilling

Borr Drilling (NYSE:BORR) is another stock from the offshore drilling services segment that has defied the market trend. BORR stock has skyrocketed by 136% in the last 12 months. I believe that further upside is impending considering the growth outlook.

As an overview, Borr Drilling has 21 contracted jack-up rigs with another two under construction. Last year, the company reported revenue of $443.8 million. For the current year, Borr has guided for revenue of $760 million.

Borr reported adjusted EBITDA of $157.4 million in 2022. The company expects to deliver an adjusted EBITDA of $380 million for 2023. With a powerful surge in revenue and EBITDA, the outlook for BORR stock is positive.

The company added $1.7 billion in order backlog through 2022. A strong order intake in 2023 will be another potential stock upside catalyst. With positive cash flows in the coming years, I also expect the company’s credit metrics to improve.

Hecla Mining (HL)

Over a 12 month period, Hecla Mining (NYSE:HL) stock is another name that has remained sideways. If we narrow the time horizon to the last six months, HL stock has surged by 60%. This does not come as a surprise with precious metals back in focus.

As an overview, Hecla Mining is among the largest miners of silver in the United States. Currently, the company claims to be mining 40% of all silver produced in the U.S. However, the company’s asset portfolio is diversified with gold also contributing significantly to the revenue and EBITDA.

For 2022, Hecla reported $719 million in revenue and a free cash flow of $109 million. With precious metals trending higher, FCF is likely to increase in 2023 and that’s the reason for HL stock surging in the recent past. With Hecla Mining have production growth visibility, the benefit will come from higher production and better price realization.

On the date of publication, Faisal Humayun did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

Faisal Humayun is a senior research analyst with 12 years of industry experience in the field of credit research, equity research and financial modeling. Faisal has authored over 1,500 stock specific articles with focus on the technology, energy and commodities sector.

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ALLY Stock is Too Risky and Too Late to the Fintech Party

Based upon its advertising, Ally Financial (NYSE:ALLY) is a digital-first provider of financial services. However, while Ally may position itself as a fintech-like entity, those in the know about ALLY stock are well aware of the company’s true business: auto lending.

Ally Financial is the successor to GMAC, the former finance arm of General Motors (NYSE:GM). GM sold its remaining stake in Ally in 2013.

Since the GM split, and especially in more recent years, Ally’s auto lending segment has become focused mainly on originating and holding used vehicle loans.

This wasn’t an issue during 2021, when pent-up demand for used vehicles resulted in a big jump in profitability. Since last year though, this high used car exposure has become a negative.

Worse yet, despite reporting a big drop in earnings, and experiencing a big share price decline, Ally’s troubles have yet to enter the rearview mirror.

ALLY Ally Financial $25.14

Why It’s not a Fintech

The line between traditional financial institutions and fintech has become blurred in recent years. For instance, with its acquisition of a bank charter, SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) has become more similar to a bank than other fintechs such as PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) and Block (NYSE:SQ).

Conversely, “old school” institutions like Ally become more like fintechs as of late. A good example of this is with Ally’s brokerage platform, Ally Invest.

Ally Invest has more in common with retail-friendly brokerages like Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) than it does with traditional brokerage houses.

So, do these “fintech features” make ALLY stock a fintech? Not exactly. While Ally’s non-auto businesses have become an increasingly larger portion of the financial institution’s asset base, automotive related loans and lease finance arrangements still make a majority of its $181.7 billion balance sheet.

Automotive lending and related services also continue to make up a lion’s share of Ally’s annual net revenue.

Again, being an auto-focused lender was a good thing for Ally during 2021, when earnings per share nearly tripled, from $2.89 to $8.28 per share, thanks to a favorable environment for the auto industry. It’s been a different story, however, since 2022.

The Worst May Not Yet be Priced-In

The deflating of the “used car bubble” has weighed heavily on ALLY stock, with shares dropping by around 44.7% over the past twelve months.

Mainly, because of worsening results. Although net interest income went up in 2022, rising auto loan charge-offs and loss provisions outweighed this.

As a result, earnings last year fell by around 38.9%, to $5.06 per share. Sell-side analysts expect an additional decline in EPS this well, with consensus currently coming in at $3.76.

With the stock trading at a single-digit multiple to this forecast, it may appear as if it accounts for current headwinds for with ALLY.

However, it’s possible that current forecasts may be too conservative. Conditions in the used car space, where Ally makes 71% of its loan originations, are expected to worsen during 2023.

Ally has already conceded that it expects net charge-offs to keep climbing, from 1.7% to 2.2%.

Even worse, Ally has especially high exposure to one of the used car industry’s riskiest players. As Louis Navellier recently pointed out, Ally is a key funding source for Carvana (NYSE:CVNA), currently agreeing to provide up to $4 billion in financing, under a forward flow agreement.

Bottom Line

Already in a tough spot, if the U.S. economy enters a recession this year, and/or unemployment keeps rising, Ally’s loan losses could end up being far greater than currently expected.

While bank run fears from earlier this month may have been an overreaction, worse-than-expected results could additionally pressure shares. A recovery could play out much more slowly than current forecasts, which call for earnings to bounce back starting in 2024.

In the long-run, Ally’s potential to further morph into a fintech may be limited, given competition from up-and-coming names like SoFi.

Unless this auto-focused bank acquires/merge with another large to mid-sized financial institution, its fortunes are likely to remain tied to the health of the automotive market.

Considering the current situation with the used vehicle market, it’s best to err on the side of caution, and avoid ALLY stock.

On the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

Thomas Niel, contributor for InvestorPlace.com, has been writing single-stock analysis for web-based publications since 2016.

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